'Football 301': Arch Manning's NFL Draft stock isn't cooked and here's why

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As the college football season rolls into its second half , few quarterback prospects have drawn as much scrutiny or sparked as much debate as Arch Manning.

The Texas signal-caller has been thrust under the national microscope since Day 1, and this year's struggles have only intensified the noise around his NFL potential. But for Yahoo Sports' Nate Tice, the conversation around Arch is far from settled — and he remains steadfast in keeping Manning ranked among his top quarterback prospects.

He made his case on an episode of the "Football 301" podcast.

The constant social media barrage calling Arch "overrated" or a "bust" doesn't move Tice. He's seen enough from the process, traits and underlying play to keep faith in Manning's long-term NFL potential:

"There's more to Arch with his tools and even his process right now than I think what the narrative is right now," Tice said. " … It's a difference between him as a player right now and what he projects to be."

While the results aren't perfect and there's plenty to work on, Tice is willing to bet that Manning is still a "good prospect that should go in the first round" of the NFL Draft, even if he's not at the tier of a Drake Maye, Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence.

The narrative around Manning has been overwhelmingly negative. Texas' consecutive losses to Oklahoma and Florida, paired with underwhelming stat lines, have led many observers to label Manning a disappointment.

But Tice urges a look at the tape, suggesting that what shows up on film tells a more positive story than what the box score reveals.

"Some of the film in those games that might have felt lackluster, the end of Oklahoma, the Tennessee game where he finished with one pick, no touchdowns, the film of those games was much better than expected."

What stands out for Tice isn't necessarily the raw production, but Manning's process, particularly his willingness to work from the pocket, push the football downfield and stand tall under pressure. While Manning has had issues finishing critical drives and a few notable mistakes, Tice points out that Manning consistently shows toughness, advanced processing and the ability to step up in tight pockets.

There's a "willingness to push the football, work over the middle" and the traits that translate to the next level: size, athleticism, and a good — not just average — arm.

Manning's struggles, according to Tice, are as much a product of his supporting cast and Texas' coaching as of anything Manning himself can control. The Texas offensive line has struggled with blitzes and stunts, and the receiving corps has been "underwhelming." Even Cam Coleman, a preseason top-five player for Tice, "just doesn't have a real feel for the game" this year.

Manning's tendency to avoid tucking and running — sometimes missing open gains with his impressive athleticism — is viewed by Tice not as a flaw in confidence, but as a trait of a quarterback striving to own the pocket and process defenses like a pro, not just bail out for easy yards.

Despite the up-and-down execution and a rough game against Florida, Tice still sees the elite tools that made Manning a consensus top recruit:

Athleticism: "Very, very good athlete … this guy's going to run a 4.5 if he does run the 40"

Toughness and poise: Willingness to stand in and take hits, work through progressions, and not rely on just his legs

Arm talent: Not just average but a legitimately good one, able to drive throws at the NFL level

That combination still justifies a spot in the first-round conversation for the 2027 NFL Draft.