[O/C] Week 7 NFL Playoff Leverage
posted by u/Comfortable-Cod7763 · 2026-10-22 15:26 UTC
Here you can see
Methodology
The probabilities are calculated based on 50k simulations of all remaining games of the regular season. Win probabilities of each games are computed based on elo ratings which update after each game. For every simulated season, it calculates playoff participants (applying all relevant tiebreakers). We can count playoff participations of each team.
## Top comments
1. u/NameShortage · 2026-10-22 15:28 UTC
More evidence to rest Evans until after the bye week.
2. u/gabrielleite32 · 2026-10-22 15:31 UTC
We are basically in the same interval of probability, which is good for the next few weeks with so many injuries
3. u/Malacolyte · 2026-10-22 15:37 UTC
Couldn't decide who to root for this weekend, but clearly you guys beating the Seahawks has a bigger impact than the other way around.
4. u/TomahawkaChawpa · 2026-10-22 15:38 UTC
You can't be serious. You're down BAD if you can't decide who to root for in the scenario of your division rival coming off of a super bowl win vs. an out of conference 'rival'.
5. u/theDomicron · 2026-10-22 15:43 UTC
I see this often with NFC West teams and it's fucking confusing.
There's an easy heirarchy for how to root for games:
1) your team.
2) the team playing against your division rival*
3) the team giving you the best chance at making/advancing in the playoffs
4) the team everyone else is rooting for against (because I'm a contrarian)
5) whatever outcome results in the most chaos
*In the event of two divisional rivals you can either root for a 3-2 victory for the team lower in standing, the meteor, or the scenario in The Dark Knight Rises where the ground opens up and swallows both teams
6. u/DiggingNoMore · 2026-10-22 17:23 UTC
Nope. The other teams in the NFC West aren't the 49ers' rivals. They're a bunch of nobody scrubs. Who cares about them?
My Super Bowl rooting algorithm: 49ers > Giants (wife's team) > Seahawks/Rams/Cardinals > most of rest of NFC > most of AFC > Ravens > Chiefs > Packers > Cowboys > Steelers > Patriots.
7. u/ositola · 2026-10-22 16:02 UTC
You're rules don't account for a team that has constantly beaten you in high profile games, especially super bowl games, especially super bowl games where we were up double digits, especially super bowl games where we were up double digits and there was let's say, less than competent reffing involved
8. u/Last_Account_Ever · 2026-10-22 16:11 UTC
It doesn't really affect you until the Super Bowl. And for that to happen, you have to make it to the Super Bowl. To make it to the Super Bowl, you want the easiest path possible. That means cheering for AFC over NFC in most cases.
I suppose that's all covered under bullet point 3.
9. u/Malacolyte · 2026-10-22 16:51 UTC
We don't want the easiest path to the Super Bowl, we want the easiest path to the Lombardi. So that means the Chiefs need to lose a few so they don't have the #1 seed and maybe another AFC team makes it to the Super Bowl. Cuz I think odds-wise we'd stand a better chance against, say, the Bills than the Chiefs who have our number.
10. u/Maverick916 · 2026-10-22 16:59 UTC
Look it's emotional and when the decision is emotional you don't always think with logic
11. u/steveCharlie · 2026-10-22 19:40 UTC
I’m sure we have what it takes to win the NFC*, the Chiefs and Mahomes though.. I would prefer if you guys don’t make the playoffs.
*if healthy
12. u/TJeffersonsBlackKid · 2026-10-22 17:02 UTC
lol bruh.
Blame Shanahan for choking those away.
Why would you ever fucking root for the Seahawks over the chiefs.
13. u/Malacolyte · 2026-10-22 15:44 UTC
Bruh. Have you seen what you guys have done to us in the Super Bowl? But seriously, I think we already have like a 95% chance of winning the West.
14. u/gabrielleite32 · 2026-10-22 16:09 UTC
It shouldn't fucking matter. I'd never ever root for any afc west team, maybe the chargers, because they're already fucked.
Imagine a chiefs fan rooting for the Broncos against the colts, because the colts historically fucked us over in the playoffs
15. u/Malacolyte · 2026-10-22 16:59 UTC
I'm not thinking about rivalries, I'm thinking about probabilities and the long game. *IF* we somehow make it to the Super Bowl, I think we'd be favorites against any team not named the Chiefs cuz Reid and Spags just have our number. For that to happen, Chiefs gotta drop a few and lose the #1 seed so the odds aren't so stacked in their favor. That's it.
16. u/mournthewolf · 2026-10-22 16:18 UTC
Naw you are correct. Some of our fans are weird about our actual rivals. Like we hate the chiefs for beating us in the Super Bowl but we don’t really have any other reaction. Also the chiefs losing or winning has zero impact on our year. We need our division rivals to lose.
17. u/Stracktheorcmage · 2026-10-22 16:21 UTC
The only time I would root for SF, LA, or Arizona is if them winning would put Seattle in the playoffs.
And even then, I'd be conflicted.
18. u/Polar_Reflection · 2026-10-22 17:09 UTC
Same, but minus the Cards. I cba to care about them or feel threatened. They will always be a pitiful franchise under the Bidwills. The Rams staying in last place and being a game and a tiebreaker behind the Cards would be just too funny.
19. u/shyrra · 2026-10-22 17:07 UTC
I don't think it's THAT crazy, since the chiefs are tied to the most painful losses in recent memory, even if the Rams/Hawks are the ones you obviously face more often and have more battles with.
It's basically like the "quality" of the pain/stress vs the quantity of it.
20. u/optimaloutcome · 2026-10-22 19:47 UTC
I root for any team playing the Seahawks.